Equities
Predicting Stock Returns Using Industry-Relative Firm Characteristics
February 24, 2000
Topics - Equities
Working Paper
Metrics such as book-to-equity, cash flow-to-price and various past return measures may be useful in forecasting future returns on equities. This paper, based on data on all NYSE, AMEX and NASDAQ stocks from June 1963 to November 1998, finds that those metrics can be more useful when they are considered in relation to the broader universe of stocks.
There are two components to this comparison: a firm’s performance relative to that of similar companies (within-industry variables), and how the firm’s industry compares with other industries (across-industry variables).
We find a significant within-industry momentum effect. In particular, our decomposition of one month past return strategies into within- and across-industry effects brings greater understanding to the intermediate term momentum anomaly. These effects are significant and of opposite sign at short horizons, where we find significant contrarian within-industry and momentum across-industry effects (with contrarian within-industry strategies being driven largely by the bid-ask spread), and significant and of the same sign at intermediate horizons.
For practitioners who employ quantitative stock selection models, our results suggest another, possibly better way of sorting stocks.
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This material is not research and should not be treated as research. This paper does not represent valuation judgments with respect to any financial instrument, issuer, security or sector that may be described or referenced herein and does not represent a formal or official view of Belvedere. The views expressed reflect the current views as of the date hereof and neither the author nor Belvedere undertakes to advise you of any changes in the views expressed herein.
The information contained herein is only as current as of the date indicated, and may be superseded by subsequent market events or for other reasons. Charts and graphs provided herein are for illustrative purposes only. The information in this presentation has been developed internally and/or obtained from sources believed to be reliable; however, neither Belvedere nor the author guarantees the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of such information. Nothing contained herein constitutes investment, legal, tax or other advice nor is it to be relied on in making an investment or other decision. There can be no assurance that an investment strategy will be successful. Historic market trends are not reliable indicators of actual future market behavior or future performance of any particular investment which may differ materially, and should not be relied upon as such. Diversification does not eliminate the risk of experiencing investment losses.
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